Balancing Threats in the Indian Ocean: India-China Rivalry through a Neorealist Lens

Abstract

Purpose- This paper examines how this rivalry is playing out, focusing on both countries’ efforts to expand their maritime presence, secure trade routes, and strengthen ties with littoral states. By applying neo-realism and balance of threat theory, the study explores the motivations behind their actions and the broader implications for regional stability.
Findings- The paper reveals that China’s growing involvement through port investments and its Belt and Road Initiative has raised concerns in India about encirclement and loss of regional influence which caused India to boost naval capabilities and sought closer ties with partners such as the United States, Japan, and France. At the same time, smaller Indian Ocean countries are not passive observers; many are pursuing flexible strategies that allow them to engage with both powers while protecting their own interests.
Methodology-The analysis is competitive and interpretive, focusing on how India and China framed their strategic narratives and economic initiatives within the IOR. Rather than framing this rivalry as a straightforward contest, the paper emphasizes its complexity—where economic cooperation coexists with deep strategic mistrust.