The Kabul Corridor: Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan

Abstract

This paper examines the strategic value and multidimensional implications of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, usually referred to as the Kabul Corridor, on the regional economic integration of Pakistan and its geopolitical standings. By taking on a qualitative methodology and using secondary data, the question investigated is as follows: How far can the Kabul Corridor help Pakistan on its way towards becoming a regional trade and transit hub despite prevailing regional security and political challenges? The evidence shows that, despite the fact that the corridor provides Pakistan with lots of economic opportunities, such as the possible decrease of transport costs by up to 40 %, the decrease of the time of cargo delivery by five days, and the increased exports to the Central Asia by more than 1 billion USD, it is exposing Islamabad to a great risk. These threats are insecurity in Afghanistan (e.g., ISKP, TTP), instability in Pakistan (e.g., Baloch insurgency), diplomatic tensions with Kabul, and limitations on the financial and technical implementation of the projects. In addition, competition in the region with other trade corridors, especially Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), has made it difficult to fulfill the Pakistani dream of offering a north-south transit hub. The paper therefore concludes that although the Kabul Corridor has all the potential of transforming regional transit dynamics to the advantage of Pakistan, its materialization will be determined by quality multilateral coordination, political stability and in the long-term investment on regional peace-building initiatives. The success of the corridor can be viable with the continuance of adaptive and security-sensitive policy approach.