Hybrid Warfare and Criminal Networks

Abstract

The current international security situation is characterized by the convergence of hybrid warfare and transnational criminal networks, creating multi-faceted challenges and issues for states, international organizations and law enforcement. Hybrid warfare is a mix of regular military forces, non-traditional warfare, cyber operations, information control, economic coercion and political manipulation for purposes below the threshold of open warfare. Meanwhile, criminal groups have also branched out into cybercrime, narcotics, arms smuggling, money laundering, human trafficking and sanctions evasion, establishing durable transnational networks, and all the while, they are increasingly drawn to the lucrative profits in the private sector. Today such networks serve as force multipliers in the operations of hybrid warfare, offering technological know-how, illicit funding, and cross-jurisdictional versatility. The estimated cost of cybercrime is approaching US$10 trillion per year, globally, and the estimated cost of money laundering 2–5% of the world's GDP. This paper analyzes the strategic embedding of criminal networks in hybrid operations, identifies new threats and looks at policy options for curbing criminal networks without compromising international security, rule of law or financial stability.