“Pakistan Afghanistan Relations and Border Tensions in Recent Years”

Abstract

Pakistan is positioned as either a legitimate stabiliser or an effective facilitator of limited conflict management within the tumultuous geopolitical dynamic caused by the long-standing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, especially along the Durand Line. The literature that has already been written has focused on Pakistan's diplomatic efforts and strategic alliances, but it hasn't gone far enough in examining how domestic politics and outside influences have shaped its ability to mediate disputes. In order to close this gap, a primary survey of 1,035 respondents from academics, government agencies, and think tanks in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan was used to examine the factors influencing Pakistan's involvement in relations with Afghanistan. The study used a cross-sectional design with structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the suggested connections between diplomatic initiatives, regional geopolitics, military alliances, economic dependencies, internal politics, and external pressures. The results show that while diplomatic efforts (β = 0.42, p < 0.001) and regional geopolitics (β = 0.28, p = 0.004) greatly improve Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, military alliances (β = -0.21, p = 0.012) and economic dependencies (β = -0.19, p = 0.018) limit Pakistan's neutrality in managing border tensions. With bootstrapped indirect effects of -0.17 and -0.15, respectively, mediation analysis showed that external pressures from China and the US considerably reduce the effects of military alliances and economic reliance. The paper adds to the body of literature by providing a thorough explanation of Pakistan's dual stance through the integration of constructivism, realism, dependency theory, and two-level game theory into a coherent framework. The findings show that although Pakistan's attempts at stabilisation and mediation are sincere in their goal, they are strategically limited by both internal and external factors. In practical terms, the study offers evidence-based insights for governments to bolster diplomatic autonomy, industry practitioners to diversify economic dependencies, and academic institutions to support multidisciplinary research on border mediationThe study enhances scholarly discussions and provides practical suggestions for promoting regional stability and national development in the intricate dynamics of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations by placing Pakistan's role within both theoretical and empirical settings.